Background

Setting the scene

Today global warming, sustainable energy and renewable raw material issues are daily headline news in every newspaper and news bulletin. Just recently, during his visit to Brazil, the US president reached an agreement with Brazil to boost the production of alternative fuels. With 17 billion litres of actual bioethanol production each, these two countries share 70% of the global bioethanol market. Any such formation of a cartel can have a serious repercussion on the Western world that already spends over 7% of its GDP on the import of petrol. This is the latest of many far-reaching developments that took place in the fuel sector over the last few years.

While everybody in the industry is ‘working on it’, each and everyone is playing his own ball game with very different goals and interests and thus the consequences of all this activity in the future are most uncertain, especially for Europe. With its recently declared target of 30% reduction on GHG emission, its biodiesel focus and environmentally-friendly technologies, will Europe be able to play a key role in this battle for the fields, as one country after another reveals its plan in the area of biofuels? Europe’s new minimum target of 10% inclusion of biofuel by 2020 will more than absorb the 10% set-aside land and the ambitious plans of other countries will further raise the pressure on arable land availability. In addition other non-food sectors such as packaging and construction are increasingly demanding their own share of the agro industry output.

Hence, for Europe, as for the other countries as well, the key question is “How to balance the output from the fields as resources for both the food/feed and non-food industries?” Agricultural raw material supply and demand is bound to undergo deep and structural change in the future. Issues such as bio-engineering, security and safety of food supply, plant versus animal protein, natural resource preservation, energy efficiency and global sourcing will have a profound impact on societal values and norms and have serious consequences for the type and size of future economic value creation opportunities. The choice of using agri-industrial raw materials as a raw material source for products, food, feed or fuel will force many stakeholders to reposition themselves. Changing consumer awareness about these issues will also influence purchase motivations and create new opportunities and threats for many players.

Since these are worldwide issues, Europe and the key European players will need to have a global understanding and vision of the possible scenarios in the agri-based sectors, only then will they be able to conceive viable and sustainable strategies in this complex and highly oliticised sector.

Is this massive change an opportunity or threat for Europe?

What are the different future scenarios for Europe?

These and other related questions are at the heart of the proposed scenario planning initiative which intends to bring together all relevant stakeholders from food and agri-industry, traditional and alternative energy, transport, green chemistry and recycling as well as authorities, public organisations, scientists and consumers.

Giract and WS have set out to explore this changing sector in a systemic, collaborative, innovative and structured manner by using scenario planning, a methodology that allows the exploration of the critical uncertainties about the future and to view how it might unfold in very different ways, providing deeper insight in driving forces, arguments and opinions.